Generating electricity from nuclear energy suffers from disadvantages:
-
the psychological problem of convincing the
people (and consequently, elected representatives) that nuclear power is
safe and beneficial and means neither Hiroshima nor Chernobyl; the
biggest problem is that ecopolitical NGOs are inclined to greatly
exaggerate the danger with anti-nuclear propaganda founded on
half-truths and even untruths.
-
the very small quantity of highly
radioactive waste left over from recycling the fuel rods need to be
safely disposed of. Cyprus does not have the means of doing this and
must rely on third party countries.
-
externalised costs (inspections, insurance
and decommissioning) must be factored in to the estimated calculation.
However, there also great advantages:
-
although current supplies of uranium are
limited, known reserves are sufficient for centuries of world-wide
potential demand (see
Nuclear fuel)
-
with the modern euro-pressurised water
reactor, 96% of the spent fuel can be recycled.
-
safety levels of modern reactors are very
high and are constantly monitored by external bodies, such as the IAEA.
-
the holistic level of greenhouse gas
emissions (including transport and recycling of fuel) is about 2 per
cent that of an oil-fired power station of equal power.
Taking the long term view, I believe that the
most economical, environmentally sensitive and reliable choice is with a
small nuclear power station. A capacity of 1 to 1.6 GW would cover the
foreseeable needs of Cyprus for at least two decades and provide a degree of
independence from politically unstable regions. The recycling of the fuel
could be kept within the European Union (France) with easy means of
transport. The actual cost of nuclear-generated electricity was typically
towards the top of the same range as fossil-fuel-fired systems, so should
not entail any great adjustment of prices, even before the fossil fuel
prices increased. Today, it is more than competitive. In fact, as the
cost of oil and gas increases even further, so nuclear energy will become
comparatively cheaper. The holistic carbon dioxide emissions, including
mining, purification and transport of the fuel is typically about 2 - 3 per
cent of that from even the best fossil fuels:
Of course, this should
be complemented by
renewable sources, to a maximum possible. This maximum of variable
methods is generally about 18 - 20 percent of the grid capacity, to ensure
stability. At all times, the electricity from these sources should be used
to a maximum and the shortfall be filled in, initially, by nuclear, then
gas-fired, if the demand still exceeds the supply and, finally, oil-fired,
only in an emergency. It should be remembered that Cyprus, unlike the rest
of Europe, cannot supply a shortfall by importing electricity from other
countries.
In my opinion, this kind of
scenario provides the best possibility for Cyprus' future.
If the hydrogen-fuelled car
becomes the norm, then a further 2 GW of generating capacity will be
required (see the essays on Cars and
Hydrogen).